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Tropical Depression TWO-E (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE JUN 21 2005
 
THE DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO HAS GRADUALLY BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL AREA OF
PERSISTENT CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND MODEST CONVECTIVE
BANDING.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 18Z INCLUDED A 2.0 FROM TAFB
AND 1.5 FROM AFWA.  QUIKSCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED A BROAD
CIRCULATION ABOUT AN ILL-DEFINED CENTER...WHICH WE BELIEVE HAS
TIGHTENED UP SOME SINCE THEN.  WHILE THE CONVECTION IS STILL A BIT
ON THE THIN SIDE...THERE IS ENOUGH TO INITIATE ADVISORIES AT THIS
TIME.

BECAUSE THE CENTER IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGES...THE INITIAL
MOTION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT ESTIMATED TO BE 280/8.  THE
DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...WITH A WEAK RIDGE FORECAST TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTER THAT...
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD WEAKEN
IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH NEAR 130 WEST.  BY THEN...THE
CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING PAST THE 26C ISOTHERM AND RESPONDING TO THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND
GFS SOLUTIONS THROUGH 72 HOURS AND FOLLOWS THE SHALLOW BAM TRENDS
THEREAFTER.

EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT RATE IN THE
SHORT TERM...WITH COOLER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOING SO BY 72
HOURS.  NEITHER THE SHIPS NOR THE GFDL GUIDANCE BRINGS THE SYSTEM
UP TO 50 KT.  HOWEVER...THE DEPRESSION HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION
ENVELOPE AND GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CLOSELY.
 
FORECASTER KNABB/FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/2100Z 13.7N 102.1W    25 KT
 12HR VT     22/0600Z 14.0N 103.4W    30 KT
 24HR VT     22/1800Z 14.5N 105.2W    35 KT
 36HR VT     23/0600Z 15.2N 107.2W    40 KT
 48HR VT     23/1800Z 16.0N 109.0W    45 KT
 72HR VT     24/1800Z 17.5N 112.5W    40 KT
 96HR VT     25/1800Z 18.0N 116.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     26/1800Z 18.0N 119.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 
 
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