ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT THU MAY 19 2005 ADRIAN INTENSIFIED INTO A HURRICANE EARLIER TODAY...AS INDICATED BY REPORTS FROM THE UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WHICH PENETRATED THE CENTER AT 1655Z AND 1830Z. ESTIMATES OF THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL...WERE 982 MB AND 984 MB. AIRBORNE RADAR DEPICTED A CIRCULAR EYE WITH 10 NM DIAMETER... AND THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND SPEED WAS 92 KT JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER. THESE DATA CORRESPOND TO SURFACE WINDS OF 75 KT...WHICH IS THE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY IN THIS ADVISORY. SINCE THE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED THE SYSTEM...THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE ELONGATED. HOWEVER...ADRIAN IS STILL LIKELY TO REACH THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST AS A HURRICANE. INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS. EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF ADRIAN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...IT WILL SPEND MANY HOURS OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA. IF A WEAKENED ADRIAN EMERGES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCREASINGLY STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE PROHIBITIVE FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION. ONLY IF THE SYSTEM MAINTAINS TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS THROUGHOUT ITS PASSAGE OVER LAND WOULD IT RETAIN THE NAME ADRIAN IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. THIS POSSIBILITY IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ADRIAN TO BE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THROUGH 72 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM ADRIAN IS TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND POTENTIALLY DEVASTATING MUD SLIDES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRIAN OF CENTRAL AMERICA. FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/2100Z 12.9N 90.3W 75 KT 12HR VT 20/0600Z 13.8N 89.3W 45 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 20/1800Z 15.2N 87.6W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 21/0600Z 16.8N 85.6W 30 KT...OVER WATER 48HR VT 21/1800Z 18.4N 83.2W 25 KT 72HR VT 22/1800Z 22.0N 77.0W 25 KT 96HR VT 23/1800Z 25.0N 70.0W 20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 24/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 19-May-2005 21:10:02 UTC