ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT THU MAY 19 2005 ADRIAN IS MAINTAINING A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR OR OVER THE ESTIMATED CENTER POSITION...BUT OVERALL THE PATTERN HAS BECOME LESS SYMMETRIC THAN IT WAS 6 HOURS AGO. MICROWAVE PASSES AT 0031Z AND 0440Z ARE ALSO SUGGESTIVE OF A LITTLE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE 45...45...AND 65 KT...RESPECTIVLY. I WILL HOLD THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 00Z SUGGESTS THAT THE WIND FIELD OF ADRIAN IS VERY SMALL. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/6. THE GENERAL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF ADRIAN WILL BE REINFORCED BY A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES...AND THIS SHOULD STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS MAINLY WITH THE SPEED OF THE CYCLONE. THE GFS HOLDS ADRIAN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO BEFORE ACCELERATING IT NORTHEASTWARD...WHILE THE GFDL AND NOGAPS ARE CONSIDERABLY FASTER THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE GFDL MODEL INTENSITY FORECASTS FOR ADRIAN HAVE BEEN EXCESSIVE. THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH HAS BEEN PRETTY MUCH ON TARGET THUS FAR... SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. WITH THE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR EXPECTED TO INCREASE...I DO NOT EXPECT A GREAT DEAL OF ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...ALTHOUGH ADRIAN COULD CERTAINLY BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY LANDFALL. ADRIAN'S LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL BE SEVERELY DISRUPTED WHEN IT CROSSES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...AND WILL MOST LIKELY DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HONDURAS. ONLY IF THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS THROUGHOUT ITS PASSAGE OVER LAND WOULD IT RETAIN THE NAME ADRIAN IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. WHATEVER EMERGES INTO THE CARRIBEAN WILL COME UNDER STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM ADRIAN IS HEAVY RAIN...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND POTENTIALLY DEVASTATING MUD SLIDES OVER THE HIGHLY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0900Z 11.6N 91.6W 50 KT 12HR VT 19/1800Z 12.2N 90.8W 55 KT 24HR VT 20/0600Z 13.2N 89.3W 60 KT 36HR VT 20/1800Z 14.5N 87.5W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 21/0600Z 16.0N 85.5W 25 KT 72HR VT 22/0600Z 19.5N 80.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 23/0600Z 23.0N 74.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 24/0600Z 27.5N 66.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 19-May-2005 08:55:01 UTC