ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT WED MAY 18 2005 DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING AROUND A SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT ADRIAN RETAINS PROMINENT BANDING FEATURES. DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS ARE 3.0...3.0... AND 3.5...FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 50 KNOTS BASED ON THE GRADUALLY IMPROVING BANDING PATTERN. ADRIAN HAS BEEN WOBBLING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL AGREE THAT A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION SHOULD RESUME SHORTLY. PRIMARILY DUE TO THE RECENT MOTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. AN ATYPICAL MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER MEXICO WILL BE THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...GRADUALLY ACCELERATING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. ADRIAN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY DAY 5 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MIDDLE LATITUDE WESTERLIES NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION BEFORE LANDFALL ON THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...INCLUDING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT EXCEED 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED TO THE WEST...VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM REMAINS WEAK. INTERACTION WITH THE TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING BEFORE ADRIAN EMERGES OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA... WHERE INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR WILL NOT FAVOR RE-INTENSIFICATION. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD BE NEARING THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR...AND ADRIAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. THEREFORE...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR EL SALVADOR. ADRIAN ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS THAT COULD CAUSE FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECASTER KNABB/STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/2100Z 10.9N 92.5W 50 KT 12HR VT 19/0600Z 11.6N 91.4W 60 KT 24HR VT 19/1800Z 12.7N 90.3W 65 KT 36HR VT 20/0600Z 14.2N 88.7W 45 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 20/1800Z 15.8N 87.0W 30 KT...OVER WATER 72HR VT 21/1800Z 18.5N 82.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 22/1800Z 22.0N 77.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 23/1800Z 25.0N 70.0W 30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 18-May-2005 21:10:01 UTC