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Tropical Depression ONE-E (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE MAY 17 2005

THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF GUATEMALA AND EL
SALVADOR HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY.  SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KT...25 KT...AND 25 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...
AND AFWA INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E HAS FORMED OVER
THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.  IN ADDITION TO SATELLITE
DATA... SHIP PFSK LOCATED NEAR THE CENTER REPORTED A PRESSURE OF
1006.4 MB... ALONG WITH 14 FT SEAS THAT CORRESPOND TO 25-30 KT
WINDS.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 070/4.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND THE
GFDL MODEL...INDICATE AN ATYPICAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION TOWARD
CENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  SINCE 1966... ONLY FOUR
SYSTEMS HAVE MADE LANDALL IN GUATEMALA OR EL SALVADOR IN ANY
MONTH... WITH ONLY ONE LANDFALLING DEPRESSION IN THE MONTH OF MAY. 
HOWEVER... NO TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS MADE LANDFALL THIS EARLY IN MAY. 
WHILE NOT CLIMATOLOGICAL... ALL OF THE MODELS AGREE ON DEVELOPING A
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER MEXICO AND TO THE WEST OF THE
CYCLONE.  THIS SHOULD PRODUCE DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING
FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH SHOULD MOVE THE SYSTEM TOWARD
CENTRAL AMERICA.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK... LANDFALL COULD OCCUR
ALONG THE GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR COASTS IN 2-3 DAYS.  IF THE
CYCLONE SURVIVES THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA... IT COULD
EMERGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BY DAY 4.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL
AND GFDL MODELS.

ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENTS ARE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST
STEADY INTENSIFICATION.  AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
DEPRESSION NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WHICH IS PRODUCING
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE SHIPS MODEL ONLY
STRENGTHENS THE CYCLONE TO 55 KT IN 48 HOURS... BUT THIS IS LARGELY
DUE TO THE UNUSUAL EASTWARD MOTION WHICH GENERALLY DOES NOT FAVOR
INTENSIFICATION.  IN CONTRAST... THE GFDL BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO 115
KT IN 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
SHIPS MODEL... AND THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN 60 HOURS
BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL.
 
FORECASTER KNABB/STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/2100Z  9.9N  95.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     18/0600Z 10.2N  94.3W    35 KT
 24HR VT     18/1800Z 10.7N  93.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     19/0600Z 11.5N  92.4W    50 KT
 48HR VT     19/1800Z 12.7N  91.2W    60 KT
 72HR VT     20/1800Z 16.0N  87.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     21/1800Z 20.0N  82.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     22/1800Z 23.0N  74.0W    30 KT
 
 
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