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Tropical Storm ZETA (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST TUE JAN 03 2006
 
ZETA IS A TENACIOUS CYCLONE AND BASED ON DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS THE
WINDS ARE AT LEAST 55 KNOTS. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS IMPRESSIVE AND
CONSISTS OF AN AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND A
CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OUTFLOW
REMAINS ESTABLISHED AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF STRONG SHEAR. THE
GFDL INSISTS ON MAKING ZETA A HURRICANE AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHARP
TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS COULD BE A CASE OF TROUGH INTERACTION
AIDING INTENSIFICATION. I WILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE GFDL
SOLUTION TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT. IT HAS ALREADY BEAT ME A FEW
TIMES. HOWEVER...FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY ONLY...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST KEEPS ZETA WITH 55 OR 50 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS
WITH A WEAKENING THEREAFTER. 

ZETA IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST OF 250 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS STEERED BY A
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A DAY
OR SO AND THEN A NORTHWEST TRACK SHOULD BEGIN AS A STRONGER RIDGE
DEVELOPS NORTHEAST OF ZETA. AS THE TROUGH GOES BY...ZETA COULD TURN
BACK TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST BUT BY THEN...THE CYCLONE SHOULD
HAVE BECOME A REMNANT LOW.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/0300Z 22.7N  42.7W    55 KT
 12HR VT     04/1200Z 22.7N  43.4W    55 KT
 24HR VT     05/0000Z 22.7N  44.5W    55 KT
 36HR VT     05/1200Z 24.0N  46.0W    50 KT
 48HR VT     06/0000Z 25.5N  46.5W    40 KT
 72HR VT     07/0000Z 28.5N  48.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     08/0000Z 30.5N  51.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     09/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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