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Tropical Storm ZETA (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST TUE JAN 03 2006

BASED ON DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS...AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES...AND THE
GENERAL APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM ON SATELLITE IMAGES...ZETA HAS NOT
STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  IN FACT THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE
RAGGED-LOOKING.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN INTENSITY
OF 45 KT.  THERE IS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PRACTICALLY SUPERIMPOSED
ON THE STORM AT THIS TIME.  THIS TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD...AND STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE IS LIKELY TO
BEGIN TO DISRUPT THE SYSTEM IN 12-24 HOURS.  SO...ALTHOUGH YOU'VE
HEARD THIS FROM US BEFORE...WE EXPECT A WEAKENING TREND TO COMMENCE
TOMORROW.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS WESTWARD...270/4.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  ZETA
SHOULD BE STEERED GENERALLY WESTWARD BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THEN...A GRADUAL TURN
TO THE RIGHT IS ANTICIPATED IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A LARGE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  IF ZETA WEAKENS FASTER THAN INDICATED
HERE...IT WOULD PROBABLY FOLLOW A MORE WESTWARD TRACK IN 3-4 DAYS.

 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/2100Z 23.2N  42.4W    55 KT
 12HR VT     04/0600Z 23.2N  43.3W    55 KT
 24HR VT     04/1800Z 23.4N  44.4W    50 KT
 36HR VT     05/0600Z 24.2N  45.6W    45 KT
 48HR VT     05/1800Z 25.3N  46.5W    40 KT
 72HR VT     06/1800Z 28.0N  47.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     07/1800Z 29.5N  48.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     08/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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