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Tropical Storm ZETA


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TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST MON JAN 02 2006
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT ZETA'S CENTER IS BECOMING EXPOSED
JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE STORM HAS WEAKENED...HOWEVER A QUIKSCAT
PASS FROM A FEW HOURS AGO SHOWED 35-40 KT WINDS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
CONVECTION.  IT IS ASSUMED THAT HIGHER SPEEDS WERE OCCURRING IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS...SO THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.  ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS SHOW AN
AREA OF INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ABOUT 10 DEGREES TO THE WEST OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE.  THIS ADDITIONAL BLAST OF WESTERLIES SHOULD CAUSE
WEAKENING...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ANTICIPATES THAT ZETA WILL BE
DISSIPATING WITHIN ABOUT 36 HOURS.

VISIBLE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER MOVED A LITTLE MORE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED AND CURRENT MOTION IS
AROUND 240/7.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD
AND THE WEAKENING CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED MAINLY BY THE LOW-LEVEL
TRADEWIND FLOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

THE LATEST...06Z...GFDL RUN IS BACK TO STRENGTHENING ZETA INTO A
HURRICANE IN 2-3 DAYS...HOWEVER THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY TO VERIFY.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/1500Z 23.6N  40.7W    45 KT
 12HR VT     03/0000Z 23.3N  41.4W    35 KT
 24HR VT     03/1200Z 23.0N  42.5W    30 KT
 36HR VT     04/0000Z 23.0N  43.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     04/1200Z 23.0N  45.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     05/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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