Hurricane EPSILON

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HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST TUE DEC 06 2005
 
I HAVE RUN OUT OF THINGS TO SAY...AND THIS ONE WILL BE SHORT.
EPSILON CONTINUES ON STEADY STATE WITH A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION
WHICH INTERMITTENTLY SURROUNDS THE LARGE EYE. INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS AT 65 KNOTS BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.
 
EPSILON IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 4 KNOTS. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
NORTH...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AND CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK UNTIL
DISSIPATION IN 120 HOURS OR SOONER. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED
BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.  ONLY THE GFDL KEEPS EPSILON AS A
HURRICANE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE TRACK BEYOND 3 DAYS
CHANGED BACK TO THE NORTHEAST.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/0900Z 32.9N  33.9W    65 KT
 12HR VT     06/1800Z 32.1N  34.2W    55 KT
 24HR VT     07/0600Z 30.5N  35.0W    50 KT
 36HR VT     07/1800Z 29.0N  36.5W    40 KT
 48HR VT     08/0600Z 28.0N  37.5W    30 KT
 72HR VT     09/0600Z 25.0N  40.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     10/0600Z 23.0N  41.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     11/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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