Tropical Storm EPSILON

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TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST THU DEC 01 2005
 
CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO IMPROVE...ALTHOUGH THE
RAGGED BANDED EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD FILLED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KT BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T3.5/55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB... A VISIBLE EYE
PATTERN OF NEARLY T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND AODT ESTIMATES... AND A
01/1710Z UW-CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 982 MB/66 KT... WHICH
IS A DECREASE OF 3 MB AND AN INCREASE OF 5 KT FROM THE 01/0944Z
ESTIMATE. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/09. EPSILON SEEMS TO HAVE
STEADIED ON A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION... AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS INDICATE THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW TO THE WEST OF
THE LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE IN WHICH EPSILON IS EMBEDDED IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE WEST TO WESTSOUTHWESTERLY. A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
12Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS MOTION
AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE MID-LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE
ZONAL/WESTERLY IN 48-120 HOURS. EVEN THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS
HAVE ABANDONED THEIR PREVIOUS STALLING OF EPSILON TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE AZORES. THE ONLY OUTLIER MODELS ARE THE GFDL AND GFS
ENSEMBLE MODELS... WHICH RACE EPSILON NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 72
HOURS AND HAVE THE CYCLONE EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND IN 120 HOURS. THOSE
TWO MODELS WERE DISCOUNTED SINCE THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BECOME ZONAL WITH TIME.
 
THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AND
SHIP DEDM LOCATED ABOUT 85 NMI SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER REPORTED A
SST OF 77F/25C. SO IT APPEARS THAT EPSILON IS MOVING OVER A NARROW
RIDGE OF WARMER WATER... WHICH COULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO BRIEFLY
BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER... SLOW
BUT STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN 12-24 HOURS AS EPSILON
MOVES OVER 22C AND COLDER SSTS AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/2100Z 31.7N  51.0W    60 KT
 12HR VT     02/0600Z 32.7N  49.7W    55 KT
 24HR VT     02/1800Z 34.1N  48.0W    50 KT
 36HR VT     03/0600Z 35.3N  46.3W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     03/1800Z 36.4N  44.6W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     04/1800Z 38.5N  40.2W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     05/1800Z 41.0N  35.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     06/1800Z 42.5N  31.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
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