Tropical Depression TWENTY-FIVE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN HAS DEVELOPED WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND A CLOSED
SURFACE CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO DEVELOPED CONVECTIVE BANDS
WITH -80C COLD TOPS TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF A CENTRAL
AREA OF CONVECTION. NWS/SAN JUAN RADAR ALSO REVEALS FAIRLY
WELL-DEFINED ROTATION. ON THIS BASIS...ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON
THE SEASON'S 25TH TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TREND
TOWARD INCREASED ORGANIZATION... MORE THAN LIKELY THE DEPRESSION
WILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING
TO 45 OR 50 KT IN ABOUT 48 HOURS... BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN WESTERLY SHEAR SPREADS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. AFTERWARD...THE MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL EITHER DISSIPATE OR BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN THE
BAROCLINIC SYSTEM WHICH IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH WILMA.
THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT ABSORPTION INTO A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY DAY
4.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/11. A LOW- TO MID- LAYER
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION AND IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS... AHEAD AND EAST OF THE APPROACHING HURRICANE WILMA AND A
MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC SYSTEM.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS.  BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BEGIN TO
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED... WITH AN EVENTUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST
AHEAD OF WILMA AND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE MID- LAYER MEAN GFS BAM.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING OVER HISPANIOLA.
 
WITH THE REGULAR LIST OF NAMES EXHAUSTED... WE WOULD UTILIZE THE
GREEK ALPHABET SHOULD THE DEPRESSION REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.
THE FIRST NAME ON THIS LIST IS ALPHA.
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/1500Z 16.1N  68.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     23/0000Z 16.9N  69.6W    35 KT
 24HR VT     23/1200Z 18.2N  71.4W    35 KT
 36HR VT     24/0000Z 20.6N  72.8W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     24/1200Z 24.9N  72.3W    45 KT
 72HR VT     25/1200Z 36.3N  62.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     26/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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