Tropical Depression TWENTY-FOUR

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005
 
DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED.  INDEED...THEY HAVE YET
TO FIND ANY FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HIGHER THAN 31 KT...WHICH ONLY
SUPPORTS 25 KT AT THE SURFACE.  IN THE INTEREST OF CONTINUITY
HOWEVER...I WILL ASSUME THAT SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS EXIST SOMEWHERE
THE AIRCRAFT HASN'T YET SAMPLED.  WHILE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN
REMAINS DOMINATED BY OUTER BANDS WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE ACTIVITY
NEAR THE CORE.  FURTHERMORE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR HAS BEEN PUSHING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTER ALONG
THE EASTERN SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THESE
INHIBITING FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO BE TEMPORARY...HOWEVER.  THE
GFDL IS STILL CALLING FOR THE CYCLONE TO REACH MAJOR HURRICANE
STATUS IN TWO TO THREE DAYS...WITH THE SHIPS MODEL CALLING FOR MORE
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST...SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE...IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
THE MOTION CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT ERRATIC. EARLIER THE DEPRESSION
WAS DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD..BUT NOW THE MOTION APPEARS TO BE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS BYPASSING THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME RIDGING TO DEVELOP
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONSEQUENTLY...A TURN
BACK TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED. THERE HAS BEEN A
SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD SHIFT IN VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS...GFDL...UKMET...
NOGAPS...AND CANADIAN MODELS...WITH ONLY THE ECMWF RELATIVELY
UNMOVED. GENERALLY SPEAKING...THESE MODELS SHOW LESS EROSION OF THE
RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THAN IN EARLIER RUNS...AND HAVE A MORE
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME
FRAME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WESTWARD...AND IS
CLOSE TO THE GFDL...WITH THE UKMET...GFS...AND NOGAPS CONSIDERABLY
FARTHER WEST.
 
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/2100Z 17.7N  79.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     17/0600Z 17.8N  79.9W    35 KT
 24HR VT     17/1800Z 17.9N  80.4W    45 KT
 36HR VT     18/0600Z 18.1N  81.0W    55 KT
 48HR VT     18/1800Z 18.4N  81.8W    65 KT
 72HR VT     19/1800Z 19.5N  83.5W    80 KT
 96HR VT     20/1800Z 21.0N  85.0W    90 KT
120HR VT     21/1800Z 23.5N  86.0W    95 KT
 
 
$$
NNNN