Hurricane VINCE

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HURRICANE VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005

THE EYE OF VINCE IS BECOMING LESS WELL-DEFINED...AND THE AMOUNT OF
COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE HAS DECREASED. 
MOREOVER...THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING INDICATIVE OF INCREASING
WESTERLY SHEAR AS THE DENSE OVERCAST HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT ERODED OVER
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  ALL OF THIS IS SUGGESTING THAT A WEAKENING
TREND IS IMMINENT...IF IT IS NOT ALREADY UNDERWAY.  SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS STILL SUPPORT AN
INTENSITY OF 65 KT...ALTHOUGH AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NEVER
QUITE SUPPORTED HURRICANE STRENGTH.  IN 24-36 HOURS...VERTICAL
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO MORE THAN 35 KT AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BELOW 20 DEG C.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST SHOWS STEADY WEAKENING...WITH VINCE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
AS IT NEARS THE IBERIAN PENINSULA.  GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
COLD FRONT BECOMING THE DOMINANT FEATURE SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

INITIAL MOTION...055/6...IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
HEADING.  A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE...AND CAUSE VINCE
TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A
LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO NOGAPS AND THE
NCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN.  THE GFS AND GFDL ARE EVEN FARTHER TO
THE RIGHT OF THE NEW NHC TRACK.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/0300Z 34.5N  17.8W    65 KT
 12HR VT     10/1200Z 35.8N  15.3W    60 KT
 24HR VT     11/0000Z 38.0N  12.0W    50 KT
 36HR VT     11/1200Z 40.0N   8.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     12/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT
 
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