Tropical Storm TAMMY

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TROPICAL STORM TAMMY SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
730 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2005
 
RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS WITHIN
THE LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS AND OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA.  THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM IS
SUFFICIENT TO CLASSIFY IT AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  WSR-88D RADAR
IMAGERY BEGAN TO DEPICT A CLOSED CIRCULATION AFTER ABOUT 06Z THIS
MORNING... WHICH BECAME WELL-DEFINED BY 08Z ABOUT 40 MILES EAST OF
MELBOURNE FLORIDA.  SURFACE WIND DIRECTION OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE
EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
CIRCULATION ON RADAR... ALTHOUGH THE WINDS NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF
THE CENTER ARE WEAK.  ALL OF THE STRONGER WINDS AND CONVECTION
OCCUPY THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM... MOST OF IT WELL
REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.  SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS OF 30 KT HAVE
BEEN COMMON THIS MORNING... BUT MOSTLY OUTSIDE OF THE REGIONS OF
STRONGEST RADAR ECHOES... SO IT SEEMS SAFE TO ASSUME THAT TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN AREAS OF DEEPEST CONVECTION. 
THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT.

TROPICAL STORM TAMMY IS MOVING FAIRLY RAPIDLY TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST...WITH ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 335/14 BASED
PRIMARILY ON RADAR FIXES.  THE STEERING IS BEING PROVIDED BY THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN BETWEEN A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE LOW OVER THE GULF TO DEEPEN SOMEWHAT
WHILE THE RIDGE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MOVES OFFSHORE. 
THEREFORE... ONLY A SUBTLE BEND TO THE WEST IN THE HEADING DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS FORECAST... WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED.  DUE TO THE ANGLE OF APPROACH OF THE CENTER OF TAMMY
TO THE COASTLINE... IT IS DIFFICULT TO SPECIFY THE LANDFALL TIME OR
LOCATION OF THE CENTER.  HOWEVER... IT IS MORE IMPORTANT TO FOCUS
ON THE LARGE AREA OF WINDS AND CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE CENTER... WHICH NECESSITATES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A
LONG STRETCH OF COASTLINE.  SINCE TAMMY IS UNDER MODERATE SOUTHERLY
SHEAR... ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY... AND THE
ASYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN WILL PROBABLY PERSIST.

TAMMY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
 
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/1130Z 28.4N  80.3W    35 KT
 12HR VT     05/1800Z 29.4N  81.1W    40 KT...NEAR COASTLINE
 24HR VT     06/0600Z 30.9N  82.4W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     06/1800Z 31.9N  83.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     07/0600Z 32.8N  84.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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