ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005 SATELLITE DATA AND SURROUNDING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN SLOWLY FESTERING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE PAST 4 DAYS HAS FINALLY ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE EXACT CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE... BUT WIND AND PRESSURE REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOY 42056 SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST OF THE BUOY LOCATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KT IS BASED ON NOAA BUOY WIND REPORTS RANGING FROM 23 TO 27 KT OVER THE PAST 9 HOURS. TWO SHIPS NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AT 01/06Z ALSO REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 28-32 KT. HOWEVER... QUALITY CONTROL CHECKS BY THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER INDICATE THAT THOSE WINDS WERE LIKELY 3-5 KT HIGH. CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE... AND SO HAS THE OUTFLOW PATTERN. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM AND SHOULD ARRIVE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 295/05. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AT BEST... BUT THE SLOWLY BACKING WIND PROFILE AT NOAA BUOY 42056 SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER IS SOMEWHERE NEARBY. THE AVAILABLE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE CYCLONE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS THE BROAD BUT WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST REMAINS INTACT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND OF THE 3 BAM MODELS... PLUS THE GFS AND UKMET SOLUTIONS. THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 4 DAYS IS LAND INTERACTION. AS THE CYCLONE PASSES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 18-30 HOURS... INCREASED FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP THE RATHER LOOSE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD... AND THIS SHOULD AID IN THE QUICK REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION ONCE THE SYSTEM EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 36 HOURS. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO 5 KT OR LESS WHILE THE CYCLONE IS OVER 29-30C SSTS. WITH A VERY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS... THIS SYSTEM COULD EASILY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT MAKES A SECOND LANDFALL OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. EXCLUDING LAND INTERACTION... THE SHIPS MODEL INCREASES THE INTENSITY TO 88 KT BY 96 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/1500Z 19.3N 85.8W 25 KT 12HR VT 02/0000Z 19.9N 86.9W 35 KT 24HR VT 02/1200Z 20.8N 88.8W 25 KT...INLAND YUCATAN 36HR VT 03/0000Z 21.7N 90.7W 30 KT...OVER WATER 48HR VT 03/1200Z 22.5N 92.5W 45 KT 72HR VT 04/1200Z 23.4N 95.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 05/1200Z 23.5N 98.5W 40 KT...INLAND NERN MEXICO 120HR VT 06/1200Z 23.0N 101.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 01-Oct-2005 15:10:11 UTC