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Tropical Depression NINETEEN (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005

CORRECTED TD-20 TO TD-19
 
SURFACE WIND DATA FROM A 01/0822 QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATE A WELL
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER EVEN FARTHER NORTH THAN SUSPECTED IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM
BOTH TAFB AND SAB... AND 25 FROM AFWA. HOWEVER... DEEP CONVECTION
HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE CLASSIFICATIONS WERE MADE...
AND THE QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED SEVERAL UNCONTAMINATED 30-KT WIND
VECTORS IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. THEREFORE... THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/06. OTHER THAN THE RELOCATION OF
THE CENTER FARTHER TO THE NORTH... THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. TD-19 IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWARD AROUND THE EASTERN
SIDE OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
AFTERWARDS... THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE WESTWARD AS A
MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE WEAKENING STEERING FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
LOW... COUPLED WITH INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH
... IS FORECAST TO RESULT IN A DECREASE IN THE FORWARD SPEED BY
DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST... AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WHILE THE SYSTEM
IS STILL OVER 26-28C SSTS. BY 48 HOURS... UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 25 KT AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 40 KT
BY 72 HOURS... WHICH SHOULD INDUCE SOME WEAKENING. HOWEVER... IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE STRONG SHEAR WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO DISSIPATE
BY 96 HOURS. 
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/1500Z 14.1N  33.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     02/0000Z 14.8N  34.2W    35 KT
 24HR VT     02/1200Z 16.4N  35.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     03/0000Z 18.2N  35.9W    40 KT
 48HR VT     03/1200Z 20.0N  36.7W    40 KT
 72HR VT     04/1200Z 23.0N  37.6W    35 KT
 96HR VT     05/1200Z 25.5N  37.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     06/1200Z 29.0N  37.0W    30 KT
 
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