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Hurricane PHILIPPE


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TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2005
 
DETERMINING A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BEEN DIFFICULT THIS MORNING.
THE CENTER THAT WE HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS APPEARS
TO BE DISSIPATING WITHIN A BROADER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...AND
SATELLITE REPRESENTATION SHOWS THE OVERALL SYSTEM OBTAINING
SUBTROPICAL OR EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS RATHER QUICKLY. DVORAK
DATA T-NUMBERS ARE ARE 2.5...35 KT FROM TAFB AND 1.5...25 KT FROM
SAB. BASED ON A FEW POSSIBLY RAIN CONTAMINATED 35 KT WIND BARBS
FROM A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35
KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 350/15. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES PHILIPPE INTERACTING WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE.  GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER IN THE FUTURE TRACK
OF THE PHILIPPE/EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THE UKMET MODEL ACCELERATES THE
CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD IN THREE DAYS...WHILE THE GFS MODEL FORECASTS
A WEAKENING SLOW DECAY WITH LITTLE NORTHEAST MOTION. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TAKES A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH...ABSORBING PHILIPPE
INTO THE LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CIRCULATION WITHIN 12 HOURS. UNLESS
THE REMNANT VORTICITY OF PHILIPPE BECOMES BETTER DEFINED THIS
AFTERNOON...ADVISORIES WILL BE DISCONTINUED. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE
FOR PHILIPPE TO REGAIN TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IF THE GFS SOLUTION
PLAYS OUT.
 
FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/1500Z 26.2N  57.1W    35 KT
 12HR VT     23/0000Z 28.2N  57.6W    35 KT...ABSORBED
 24HR VT     23/1200Z 30.6N  58.7W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     24/0000Z 32.6N  58.8W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     24/1200Z 34.5N  57.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     25/1200Z 36.5N  51.6W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     26/1200Z 38.5N  45.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     27/1200Z 40.0N  39.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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