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Hurricane PHILIPPE


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TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2005

THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE REMAINS EXPOSED WELL TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS
CONTINUE TO DECREASE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE LOWERED TO 40
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER AND IS ESTIMATED TO BE 360/8.
THE TRACK FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED A LITTLE EASTWARD BASED ON THE MORE
NORTHWARD CURRENT MOTION. THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING REMAINS
THE SAME THROUGH 72 HOURS. IN THE LONGER RANGE...THE GFS IS NOW THE
ONLY MODEL THAT SUGGESTS THAT PHILIPPE WILL NOT GET PICKED UP BY A
LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...AND THIS IS
DISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME. THE REMAINDER OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND
INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY 120 HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS FAST THE GFDL AND UKMET
SOLUTIONS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES THAT PHILIPPE WILL
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 120 HOURS...BUT IT MAY HAPPEN SOONER.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. SINCE THE SHEAR IS NOT
FORECAST TO DECREASE MUCH...ONE WOULD THINK THAT PHILIPPE WOULD
REMAIN STEADY STATE OR CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.  HOWEVER...THE FUTURE
INTERACTION BETWEEN PHILLIPE AND THE UPPER LOW NEAR 22N62W COULD
TRANSITION THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTO MORE OF A HYBRID SYSTEM. 
THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING
IN 24-36 HOUR WITH AN EXPANDED WIND FIELD TO THE NORTHEAST.
LATER IN THE FORECAST THE SHEAR BECOMES MUCH STRONGER AND THE
CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN BEFORE BECOMING FINALLY BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.

FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/2100Z 21.2N  57.1W    40 KT
 12HR VT     22/0600Z 22.8N  57.3W    40 KT
 24HR VT     22/1800Z 25.3N  57.9W    45 KT
 36HR VT     23/0600Z 27.8N  58.4W    50 KT
 48HR VT     23/1800Z 30.5N  59.0W    50 KT
 72HR VT     24/1800Z 35.0N  56.5W    45 KT
 96HR VT     25/1800Z 38.5N  49.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     26/1800Z 42.5N  41.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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