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Hurricane PHILIPPE (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005

SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW A DISORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN... AS
PERSISTENT WESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER-
TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 23N 60W IMPINGES ON PHILIPPE. 
THE GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING THAT THE UPPER CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN...
AND THAT THE SHEAR OVER PHILIPPE WILL LESSEN.  THIS IS DIAGNOSED BY
THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH BRINGS THE SYSTEM BACK TO HURRICANE STRENGTH
IN 24-36 HOURS.  GIVEN THE DIFFICULTIES THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS CAN
HAVE IN PREDICTING TROPICAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOWS...I AM SOMEWHAT
DUBIOUS ABOUT THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE...SO
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON 
RESTRENGTHENING.  BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...PHILIPPE IS
LIKELY TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC AS SUGGESTED BY THE NOGAPS AND U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL
FORECAST FIELDS.

IT CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE TO FIND THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION...
ALTHOUGH AN AMSU-B PASS FROM 0201Z SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER WAS
NOT AS FAR NORTH AS PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED.  THUS THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE...350/4...IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE.  THE SLOWER
STARTING SPEED DICTATES A LITTLE SLOWER FORECAST FOR THE FIRST
COUPLE OF DAYS.  OTHERWISE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALONG THE SAME
GENERAL PATH AS IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...AND CLOSE TO THE GFDL/
UKMET/NOGAPS/GFS CONSENSUS.  IT IS STILL ANTICIPATED THAT PHILIPPE
WILL RECURVE AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 4 IN RESPONSE TO A
STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A
SLIGHTLY UNSETTLING ASPECT OF THE GUIDANCE IS THE 00Z GFS
RUN...WHICH DOES NOT SHOW PHILIPPE GETTING COMPLETELY PICKED UP BY
THE TROUGH...AND LEAVES A PIECE OF THE SYSTEM WANDERING ABOUT IN
THE SUBTROPICS.  THIS SCENARIO IS REJECTED AT THE PRESENT TIME.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/0900Z 19.5N  57.5W    55 KT
 12HR VT     21/1800Z 21.2N  57.8W    55 KT
 24HR VT     22/0600Z 23.3N  58.2W    60 KT
 36HR VT     22/1800Z 25.7N  59.0W    60 KT
 48HR VT     23/0600Z 28.2N  59.6W    60 KT
 72HR VT     24/0600Z 33.5N  58.0W    55 KT
 96HR VT     25/0600Z 38.5N  50.0W    50 KT
120HR VT     26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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