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Hurricane PHILIPPE


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HURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005
 
PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A RAGGED APPEARANCE IN SATELLLITE
IMAGERY.  HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS
REMAINS OVER THE ESTIMATED CENTER.  WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CLOUD
PATTERN...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE ARE VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 340/6 KT. THE FORECAST
REASONING REMAINS THE SAME WITH PHILIPPE EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY
NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 60W. 
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE EASTWARD AND THE 
OFFICIAL TRACK WAS ADJUSTED AS WELL. THE FORECAST MOTION WAS
INCREASED SLIGHTLY N THE EXTENDED RANGE SINCE BOTH THE GLOBAL
MODELS AND CONSENSUS TRACKS BEGIN TO ACCELERATE PHILIPPE NORTH AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE HIGH OVER THE EAST ATLANTIC.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE GUNA AND CONU CONSENSUS
TRACKS.
 
MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR ENHANCED BY THE OUTFLOW FROM RITA WILL
LIKELY INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT-TERM.
THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE
CYCLONE TO STRENGTHEN AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS PHILIPPE TO
A 90-KT HURRICANE. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO AGAIN INCREASE IN 96 TO
120 HOURS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL CLOSELY BUT IS
FAR LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFDL WHICH BRINGS PHILIPPE TO A MAJOR
HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/2100Z 18.0N  56.5W    65 KT
 12HR VT     20/0600Z 18.7N  56.8W    65 KT
 24HR VT     20/1800Z 19.9N  57.2W    70 KT
 36HR VT     21/0600Z 21.8N  57.8W    75 KT
 48HR VT     21/1800Z 23.7N  58.5W    80 KT
 72HR VT     22/1800Z 27.5N  59.5W    90 KT
 96HR VT     23/1800Z 31.5N  59.5W    85 KT
120HR VT     24/1800Z 36.0N  56.0W    80 KT
 
 
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