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Tropical Storm PHILIPPE


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005
 
A DEEP BURST OF CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C HAS
DEVELOPED VERY NEAR THE CIRCULATION DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE STILL HOLDING AT T3.0/ 45 KT...BUT THE
INTENSITY COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW 
PATTERN IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY RESTRICTED TO
THE NORTHWEST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/07. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED MOVE
SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
UNSEASONABLY WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT AND ON THIS SCENARIO... WITH THE
ONLY DIFFERENCE BEING THE FORWARD SPEED. THE NOGAPS MODEL IS THE
FASTEST AND THE GFS IS THE SLOWEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS NEAR THE
NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS PHILIPPE PRODUCING A
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN AND PRODUCING LOW VERTICAL SHEAR. WITH
THE CYCLONE MOVING OVER 30C SSTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AT LEAST
SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING SEEMS TO BE IN ORDER.
 
IT NOW APPEARS THAT PHILIPPE WILL NOT REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF ANY
WATCHES OR WARNING FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES.
 
FORECASTER STEWART/KNABB
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/2100Z 15.9N  55.9W    45 KT
 12HR VT     19/0600Z 16.7N  56.3W    55 KT
 24HR VT     19/1800Z 17.8N  57.3W    65 KT
 36HR VT     20/0600Z 18.9N  58.2W    70 KT
 48HR VT     20/1800Z 20.1N  58.7W    75 KT
 72HR VT     21/1800Z 23.0N  59.5W    85 KT
 96HR VT     22/1800Z 25.5N  60.5W    90 KT
120HR VT     23/1800Z 28.5N  61.5W    95 KT
 
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