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Tropical Depression SEVENTEEN


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TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS ORGANIZED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SEVENTEEN.  THE DEPRESSION CURRENTLY HAS A CLUSTER OF STRONG
CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CENTER...OTHER CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS...AND GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT...AS 40 KT WINDS SEEN IN A
QUIKSCAT OVERPASS THIS MORNING MAY HAVE HAD RAIN CONTAMINATION
PROBLEMS.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 305/8...UNCERTAIN BECAUSE OF
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND HOW MUCH THE CENTER OF
THE SYSTEM MAY HAVE REFORMED DURING THE NIGHT.  STEERING CURRENTS
ARE UNUSUALLY WEAK FOR THAT PART OF THE ATLANTIC...AND THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RATHER SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO PASS EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THEM DID NOT INITIALIZE THE SYSTEM VERY
WELL.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FARTHER EAST
GFDL AND LARGE-SCALE MODELS AND THE MORE WESTERLY BAM MODELS AND
LBAR.

THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER 30C WATER FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND
THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT.  THUS...STEADY STRENGTHENING
SHOULD OCCUR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO
HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HR AND TO 95 KT BY 120 HR...AND THIS A
LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN EITHER THE SHIPS OR THE GFDL.

THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK DOES NOT IMMEDIATELY REQUIRE WATCHES OR
WARNINGS.  WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AFTER THE POSITION AND
MOTION OF THE CYCLONE ARE BETTER ESTABLISHED.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/1500Z 13.0N  55.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     18/0000Z 13.7N  55.9W    35 KT
 24HR VT     18/1200Z 14.9N  56.9W    45 KT
 36HR VT     19/0000Z 16.1N  57.9W    55 KT
 48HR VT     19/1200Z 17.3N  58.9W    65 KT
 72HR VT     20/1200Z 19.5N  61.0W    75 KT
 96HR VT     21/1200Z 21.0N  62.5W    85 KT
120HR VT     22/1200Z 22.5N  63.5W    95 KT
 
 
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