Hurricane OPHELIA

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HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005
 
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE THAT THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS STILL 75 KNOTS. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 982
MB AND THE EYEWALL IS WELL-DEFINED EXCEPT IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION. 
THE OUTFLOW IS CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTH QUADRANTS. THE 
SHEAR AND THE OCEAN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING SO...OPHELIA WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN.
OPHELIA SHOULD BE AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 72 HOURS AS IT
BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION.
 
OPHELIA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 055 DEGREES AT 5
KNOTS. STEERING CURRENTS ARE STILL WEAK SO NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. 
THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ITS FORWARD
SPEED. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE HURRICANE FROM THE
NORTHWEST IN COMBINATION WITH AND A RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST...WOULD PROBABLY FORCE OPHELIA TEMPORARILY ON A MORE
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY TRACK. ON THIS BASIS...THE FORECAST TRACK HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE BIT TO THE LEFT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS ALSO
SUPPORTS THE LEFTWARD SHIFT OF THE TRACK.  THIS NEW TRACK BRINGS
OPHELIA A LITTLE BIT CLOSER TO CAPE COD AND THEN NOVA SCOTIA BUT BY
THEN...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE IN TRANSITION TO EXTRATROPICAL.
  
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0900Z 34.7N  76.1W    75 KT
 12HR VT     15/1800Z 35.0N  75.5W    70 KT
 24HR VT     16/0600Z 35.7N  74.7W    65 KT
 36HR VT     16/1800Z 37.0N  73.5W    65 KT
 48HR VT     17/0600Z 39.0N  71.5W    60 KT
 72HR VT     18/0600Z 44.0N  64.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     19/0600Z 47.2N  56.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     20/0600Z 50.5N  40.1W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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