Hurricane OPHELIA

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HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005
 
THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 75 KT...BASED ON 84 KT WINDS AT 700
MB IN THE SOUTH EYEWALL...AND A 10-MIN MEAN WIND FROM CAPE LOOKOUT
OF 64 KT. HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS UP A LITTLE AND THE
EYEWALL HAS ERODED A BIT...SO OPHELIA MAY HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK
INTENSITY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A SURGE OF
NORTHWESTERLIES IN THE MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERE IS RAPIDLY
UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. WHILE THIS MAY
BE TEMPORARILY ENHANCING CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN EYEWALL...I HAVE
TO THINK THAT THIS FLOW WILL BE A DISRUPTIVE INFLUENCE ON THE
CIRCULATION IN ANOTHER 6-12 HOURS OR SO. THE GFDL MODEL SHOWS SOME
WEAKENING IN THE SHORT TERM AS WELL.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A LITTLE BIT UNDER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 060/6.  MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED QUITE A BIT
TO THE LEFT...WITH THE NOGAPS...GFDL...GFS...AND UKMET TAKING
OPHELIA CLOSE ENOUGH TO THREATEN NEW ENGLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA WITH
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS.  THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE TROUGH
COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES BEING DEEPER OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES...AND A MORE PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF BERMUDA. 
GIVEN THE CONSISTENT SHIFT IN ALL THE GUIDANCE...I HAVE ADJUSTED
THE TRACK TO THE LEFT...BUT FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS IN THAT DIRECTION
DOWN THE ROAD MAY BE REQUIRED.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0300Z 34.3N  76.5W    75 KT
 12HR VT     15/1200Z 34.7N  75.8W    70 KT
 24HR VT     16/0000Z 35.3N  74.9W    65 KT
 36HR VT     16/1200Z 36.3N  73.6W    65 KT
 48HR VT     17/0000Z 38.0N  71.5W    60 KT
 72HR VT     18/0000Z 42.5N  65.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     19/0000Z 46.5N  56.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     20/0000Z 50.0N  42.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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