Hurricane OPHELIA

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HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005

...CORRECTED 120 HR TABLE FROM INLAND TO OVER WATER...
 
LATEST RECON DATA SHOW THAT OPHELIA IS A 70-KNOT HURRICANE WITH A
CLOSED EYEWALL OF ABOUT 30 N MI IN DIAMETER AND A 977 MB MINIMUM
PRESSURE. CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP AND THE OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED
A LITTLE BIT. HOWEVER...OPHELIA IS A LARGE CYCLONE WITH TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING UP TO 130 N MI FROM THE CENTER. THE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY MARGINAL FOR
STRENGTHENING...AND THE OCEAN IS A LITTLE BIT COOLER DUE TO THE
UPWELLING. THEREFORE...ONLY A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. IN
FACT...NEITHER SHIPS NOR THE GFDL MODELS BRING THE HURRICANE ABOVE
80 KNOTS. 

OPHELIA HAS BEEN MOVING VERY LITTLE...JUST A LITTLE NORTHEAST OR
NORTHWARD DRIFT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNTIL THE HIGH TO THE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE BECOMES ESTABLISHED. THEREAFTER...I MUST EMPHASIZE THAT
THE TRACK FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THE SPREAD IN THE
MODELS HAVE INCREASED A LOT SINCE THE LAST RUN.  BUT IN GENERAL...
LATEST MODELS HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL SHIFT TO RIGHT WITH MOST OF THE
TRACKS NOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE EXCEPTION IS THE GFDL
WHICH IS BRINGING THE HURRICANE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH
CAROLINA BORDER. THIS IS A SMALL SHIFT TO THE RIGHT FROM ITS
PREVIOUS RUN.  DUE TO THE CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE...THE AREA OF
HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED TO BE SHIFTED NORTHWARD LATER
TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...I WOULD RATHER WAIT FOR TONIGHT'S MODEL RUN
WHICH WILL INCLUDE THE DATA FROM THE NOAA JET. I WANT TO MAKE SURE
THAT THEY DO NOT SHIFT BACK TO THE LEFT LIKE THEY DID LAST NIGHT.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/2100Z 31.8N  76.2W    70 KT
 12HR VT     11/0600Z 32.0N  76.0W    75 KT
 24HR VT     11/1800Z 32.0N  76.0W    75 KT
 36HR VT     12/0600Z 32.2N  76.6W    75 KT
 48HR VT     12/1800Z 32.5N  77.5W    75 KT
 72HR VT     13/1800Z 34.0N  78.2W    75 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     14/1800Z 35.5N  78.0W    40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     15/1800Z 37.5N  73.5W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 
 
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