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Tropical Storm OPHELIA


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TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005
 
THERE HAS BEEN NO IMPORTANT CHANGES TO REPORT. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME
PARTIALLY EXPOSED DUE TO SOUTHERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER... THERE IS
PLENTY OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.  THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DECREASED TO 996 MB BUT WINDS REMAIN AT 45
KNOTS.
 
OPHELIA IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS WHICH ARE
FORECAST TO PREVAIL. IN FACT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PRACTICALLY
KEEPS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MEANDERING WITHIN AN AREA OF ABOUT 100
NAUTICAL MILES FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THERE IS PLENTY OF WARM
WATER IN THIS AREA...BUT THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THEN
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. DUE TO THIS VARIABILITY...ONLY
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST...AS SUGGESTED
BY THE SHIPS MODEL.
 
MODELS CONTINUE IN GREAT DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE TRACK. THE
GFS WHICH LOOPED THE CYCLONE BACK TO THE WEST IN THE PREVIOUS
RUN...IS NOW SHOWING A TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST. THE NOGAPS WHICH
EARLIER TURN OPHELIA TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM FLORIDA IS BRINGING
THE CYCLONE BACK TO THE U.S. COAST. THE GFDL STUBBORNLY INSISTS ON
A TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD FLORIDA...AND THE STORY GOES
ON AND ON. SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT HAVE THE LUXURY OF
MAKING SUCH LARGE CHANGES IN TRACK EVERY SIX HOUR...THE BEST OPTION
FOR WEAK STEERING CURRENT SCENARIOS IS TO MAINTAIN THE CYCLONE
NEARLY STATIONARY.  THIS IS BASICALLY THE SOLUTION OF THE
CONSENSUS.
 
ALL INTERESTS IN NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEVELOPING CYCLONE.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/2100Z 28.9N  79.4W    45 KT
 12HR VT     08/0600Z 29.1N  79.6W    45 KT
 24HR VT     08/1800Z 29.5N  80.0W    55 KT
 36HR VT     09/0600Z 30.0N  80.2W    60 KT
 48HR VT     09/1800Z 30.3N  80.0W    60 KT
 72HR VT     10/1800Z 30.5N  79.5W    60 KT
 96HR VT     11/1800Z 30.5N  79.5W    70 KT
120HR VT     12/1800Z 30.5N  79.5W    70 KT
 
 
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