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Hurricane NATE (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS NATE ALMOST DEVOID OF ANY DEEP
CONVECTION.  VISIBLE PICTURES SHOW NATE WITH AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION AS A RESULT OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 4.5...4.0...AND 4.0 FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND KGWC RESPECTIVELY...BASED PRIMARILY ON CONSTRAINTS
OF THE TECHNIQUE. DUE TO THE DEGENERATION OF DEEP CONVECTION AND 
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITIES CONTINUING TO LOWER...NATE HAS BEEN
DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM.  NATE REMAINS INFLUENCED BY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR
BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER CIRCULATION. NATE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  

NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 070/21. NATE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL IN TWO OR
THREE DAYS.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE ABSORBED WITHIN A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SOON AFTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE AND IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.  THE INITIAL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A
RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS.

FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/1500Z 34.3N  54.6W    60 KT
 12HR VT     10/0000Z 35.1N  50.9W    55 KT
 24HR VT     10/1200Z 35.8N  46.2W    50 KT
 36HR VT     11/0000Z 36.8N  41.5W    45 KT
 48HR VT     11/1200Z 39.1N  37.1W    40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     12/1200Z 47.0N  27.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     13/1200Z...ABSORBED
 
 
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