Hurricane MARIA
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HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005
DEEP CONVECTION IS PERSISTING NEAR THE CENTER OF MARIA WITH AN
EYE-LIKE STRUCTURE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES. AMSU AND
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED SO
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 65 KT. MARIA HAS RETAINED
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS A LITTLE LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED...CUT OFF
FROM THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES... AND CYCLONE PHASE ANALYSIS
DIAGRAMS FROM FSU SUGGEST THE SYSTEM COULD POSSIBLY DELAY FULL
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION FOR A DAY OR SO. AFTER A SLOW WEAKENING
OVER 23-25C WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS... THE CYCLONE HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO REINTENSIFY INTO A POWERFUL MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE WITH
WINDS OF HURRICANE-FORCE BECAUSE OF ENERGY FROM A BAROCLINIC
TROUGH.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE...ESTIMATED AT
045/10. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM EARLIER
WITH MODEL GUIDANCE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK
THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE LONGER-TERM FORECAST
IS HOW MUCH OF A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WILL OCCUR DUE TO THE
AN UPPER TROUGH LEAVING SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
BETWEEN CONU AND THE GFS SHOWING MORE INTERACTION WITH THIS TROUGH
AND...CONSQUENTLY...A STRONG MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE SOUTH OF ICELAND.
WIND RADII FORECASTS ARE BASED ON GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS MODEL.
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 08/2100Z 39.5N 46.8W 65 KT
12HR VT 09/0600Z 40.5N 45.2W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 09/1800Z 42.0N 43.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 10/0600Z 44.0N 40.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 10/1800Z 46.0N 38.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 11/1800Z 53.0N 35.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 12/1800Z 59.0N 32.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 13/1800Z 63.0N 27.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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