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Hurricane MARIA


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HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005

STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE HURRICANE...AND THE
SYSTEM IS SLOWLY WEAKENING.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 70 KT
WHICH IS BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA. 
WATER VAPOR ANIMATION... ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN
CIMMS...AND GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THAT THE STRONG SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PERSIST...SO FURTHER WEAKENING...AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...IS LIKELY.  IN A COUPLE OF DAYS HOWEVER...NWP MODELS
DEPICT THE SYSTEM AS A STRONG CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...
INDICATING THAT MARIA WILL SOON BEGIN TO TAP ENERGY FROM BAROCLINIC
SOURCES.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS LEVELLED OFF AT 55 KT
TO REFLECT THE TRANSITION TO A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL STORM.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 045/6.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE...OR IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. 
THE HURRICANE IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A BROAD
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.  A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
ANTICIPATED AS MARIA MOVES INTO A STRONGER STEERING FLOW AT HIGHER
LATITUDES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK PREDICTED BY THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS METHOD...CONU.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/2100Z 34.3N  55.1W    70 KT
 12HR VT     07/0600Z 35.1N  53.9W    70 KT
 24HR VT     07/1800Z 36.5N  52.0W    65 KT
 36HR VT     08/0600Z 37.8N  50.1W    60 KT
 48HR VT     08/1800Z 39.3N  48.0W    55 KT
 72HR VT     09/1800Z 42.5N  43.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     10/1800Z 46.0N  37.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     11/1800Z 51.0N  31.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
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