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Hurricane MARIA


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HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005

MARIA HAS BEEN SLOWLY WEAKENING THIS MORNING.  AN EYE IS NO LONGER
EVIDENT ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES.  THE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS
AN EROSION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
HURRICANE...INDICATIVE OF A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR. 
SINCE STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER MARIA...AND
THE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE NOT GETTING ANY WARMER...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS STEADY WEAKENING IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS AND
THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.  AS IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...MARIA IS
PREDICTED TO TRANSFORM INTO A STRONG BAROCLINIC CYCLONE OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC IN A FEW DAYS.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM
MAINTAINING ITS IDENTITY THROUGH 5 DAYS.

THE TRACK HAS BENT TO THE RIGHT SOMEWHAT...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
NOW 045/6.  THE HURRICANE IS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.  AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD HIGHER
LATITUDES...THE STEERING CURRENT INCREASES.  THEREFORE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...ON A CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD
HEADING...IS CALLED FOR.  THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
CONSENSUS OF THE TRACK PREDICTION MODELS.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/1500Z 33.8N  55.6W    85 KT
 12HR VT     07/0000Z 34.5N  54.6W    75 KT
 24HR VT     07/1200Z 35.9N  52.8W    65 KT
 36HR VT     08/0000Z 37.4N  50.8W    60 KT
 48HR VT     08/1200Z 38.8N  48.5W    55 KT
 72HR VT     09/1200Z 41.5N  43.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     10/1200Z 45.5N  36.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     11/1200Z 51.0N  29.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
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