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Hurricane MARIA


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005
 
IT APPEARS THAT MARIA PEAKED IN INTENSITY ABOUT 6 HOURS AGO. THE NOW
IS HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE RAGGED AND OPEN TO THE WEST...AND CLOUD
TOPS HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY. THE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...BUT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY MID-LEVEL AIR IS
NOW ENTERING THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. SATELLITE INTENSITY CURRENT
ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND 90 KT FROM SAB...SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

MARIA IS MOVING AT 020/06. THE NARROW RIDGE MID-LEVEL TO NORTH OF
MARIA IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY ERODE OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO GRADUALLY MOVE A LITTLE FASTER.
BEYOND 24 HOURS...AND APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO LIFT OUT MARIA TO THE NORTHEAST AND
RAPIDLY ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE OVER MUCH COOLER WATER BY 72 HOURS.
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
SIGNIFICANT HIGH-LATITUDE EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE
NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE NHC MODEL
CONSENSUS.

DRY AIR...COOLER WATER...AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR IN EXCESS OF
30 KT IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY TAKE ITS TOLL ON HURRICANE MARIA.
STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST UNTIL 72 HOURS...AT WHICH TIME
INCREASED BAROCLINIC EFFECTS SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN A NEARLY
STEADY INTENSITY FOR THEN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE MARIA.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/0900Z 33.3N  56.4W    90 KT
 12HR VT     06/1800Z 34.2N  55.5W    80 KT
 24HR VT     07/0600Z 35.6N  53.9W    70 KT
 36HR VT     07/1800Z 36.9N  52.1W    60 KT
 48HR VT     08/0600Z 38.2N  49.8W    55 KT
 72HR VT     09/0600Z 41.0N  44.3W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     10/0600Z 45.0N  38.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     11/0600Z 50.0N  31.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
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