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Hurricane MARIA


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON SEP 05 2005
 
THE EYE APPEARS A LITTLE LESS RAGGED THAN A FEW HOURS AGO AND THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION IS SOMEWHAT MORE SYMMETRIC ABOUT THE EYE.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 00Z WERE T5.5/102 KT FROM
TAFB AND T5.0/90 KT FROM SAB... WHILE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM
CIMSS ARE NEAR 100 KT.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 100
KT... MAKING MARIA A MAJOR HURRICANE.  MARIA HAS 24 HOURS OR LESS
TO REMAIN WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR MAINTAINING THE
CURRENT INTENSITY.  INCREASING SHEAR DUE TO APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS SHOULD INDUCE GRADUAL
WEAKENING THEREAFTER.   MARIA SHOULD REACH MUCH COOLER WATERS AT
ABOUT 72 HOURS AND THEN BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.
 
MARIA HAS SLOWED DOWN... WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 010/5...
AND THE SHORTER TERM MOTION MIGHT BE EVEN A LITTLE SLOWER.  SINCE
THE MID TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH EMERGING OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA HAS JUST ABOUT REACHED THE LONGITUDE OF MARIA... THE
HURRICANE SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND ACCELERATE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.  THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... ONLY
A LITTLE BEHIND IT DUE TO THE SLOWER INITIAL MOTION.  THE FORECAST
IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND IS ALSO A BLEND
BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS AND GFDL AND THE SLOWER AND MORE NORTHWARD
NOGAPS AND UKMET SOLUTIONS.
 
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/0300Z 32.9N  56.5W   100 KT
 12HR VT     06/1200Z 34.0N  55.8W   100 KT
 24HR VT     07/0000Z 35.3N  54.4W    90 KT
 36HR VT     07/1200Z 36.6N  52.7W    85 KT
 48HR VT     08/0000Z 37.8N  50.3W    75 KT
 72HR VT     09/0000Z 40.5N  45.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     10/0000Z 44.0N  38.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     11/0000Z 49.5N  32.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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