Tropical Storm MARIA

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TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 03 2005
 
MARIA IS GENERATING A MASS OF CONVECTION WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C
NEAR OR NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...ALTHOUGH JUST HOW FAR NORTH
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO CIRRUS OBSCURING THE
CENTER AND NO RECENT MICROWAVE DATA.  THE STORM HAS FAIR CIRRUS
OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND POOR ELSEWHERE.  THE
MAXIMUM INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 310/11...UNCERTAIN MAINLY BECAUSE
THE SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST A FASTER MOTION.  MARIA IS BETWEEN THE
LOW/MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A COMPLEX DEEP
LAYER TROUGH TO THE WEST.  THIS COMBINATION SHOULD MOVE THE STORM
GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 72 HR AS INDICATED BY ALL THE
TRACK GUIDANCE.  BEYOND THAT TIME...THERE IS A RANGE OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS OF HOW MARIA WILL INTERACT WITH THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGHING
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE GFS LOSES THE STORM...WHILE THE
UKMET MAKES IT LARGE AND STRONGER WHILE DRIFTING EASTWARD...AND THE
GFDL RACES IT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.  GIVEN THE SPREAD...THE NEW
TRACK FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A SLOW NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
AFTER 72 HR IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

MARIA IS DEVELOPING SOME ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW...AND IS FORECAST TO
EXPERIENCE RELATIVELY LIGHT SHEAR FOR 48 HR.  THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WILL STRENGTHEN THE STORM TO 70 KT IN 48 HR AS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN SHIPS AND THE GFDL.  AFTER THAT TIME...GRADUALLY
COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT
INTENSIFICATION.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0900Z 23.4N  52.4W    45 KT
 12HR VT     03/1800Z 24.6N  53.6W    50 KT
 24HR VT     04/0600Z 26.6N  54.8W    60 KT
 36HR VT     04/1800Z 28.4N  55.7W    65 KT
 48HR VT     05/0600Z 30.2N  56.5W    70 KT
 72HR VT     06/0600Z 33.0N  57.5W    70 KT
 96HR VT     07/0600Z 34.5N  57.5W    70 KT
120HR VT     08/0600Z 36.0N  56.5W    65 KT
 
 
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