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Tropical Storm MARIA


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TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 02 2005
 
THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF MARIA HAD DETERIORATED MARKEDLY DURING
BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z... WITH SUBSTANTIAL WARMING OF THE INFRARED
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES.  MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM SSMI AT 2152Z AND
FROM SSMIS AT 2324Z REVEALED VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER AND ONLY REMAINING IN LIMITED PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 00Z WERE 3.0/45 KT FROM
TAFB AND SAB...BUT THE DATA T NUMBERS HAD COME DOWN TO 2.5.  MORE
RECENT INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES A BURST OF CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE... WITHOUT WHICH IT WOULD BE TEMPTING TO ADJUST
THE INITIAL INTENSITY SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD... SO THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT.

IT IS A LITTLE CHALLENGING TO PRECISELY LOCATE THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION... BUT WITH THE HELP OF THE MICROWAVE OVERPASSES JUST
BEFORE 00Z... THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/10... SIMILAR TO
EARLIER TODAY.  THE STORM IS BEING STEERED NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS ORIENTED EAST TO
WEST ALONG ABOUT 25N.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
GRADUAL TURN... BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND A TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST...
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO... WITH A
LITTLE MORE SPREAD BEYOND THAT TIME.  THE LATTER PORTIONS OF SOME
OF THESE MODEL FORECASTS ARE A LITTLE COMPLICATED... WITH A VARIETY
OF EVOLUTIONS. THE NOGAPS SUGGESTS A WEAKENED MARIA WILL MERGE IN
ABOUT FOUR DAYS WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR BERMUDA TO FORM A
STRENGTHENING EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE ON DAY 5. THE UKMET DOES NOT
FORECAST THIS EXTRATROPICAL DEVELOPMENT BUT HAS MARIA STALLING EAST
OF BERMUDA BY THAT TIME... AND THERE IS NOTHING LEFT OF MARIA IN
THE GFS BY 72 HOURS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE CLEARER THAN LAST NIGHT. 
THE 18Z GFDL... AS IN THE EARLIER 12Z RUN... FORECASTS MARIA TO
BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN 36 HOURS...AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IS
SIMILAR.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS... HOWEVER... FORECAST AT LEAST
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF MARIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
FORECAST MARIA TO BECOME A HURRICANE... BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT
DISORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION AND THE GFDL/SHIPS GUIDANCE...
DELAY THE STRENGTHENING A LITTLE LONGER.
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0300Z 22.4N  51.4W    45 KT
 12HR VT     03/1200Z 23.7N  52.8W    50 KT
 24HR VT     04/0000Z 25.5N  54.1W    60 KT
 36HR VT     04/1200Z 27.5N  55.0W    65 KT
 48HR VT     05/0000Z 29.3N  55.7W    65 KT
 72HR VT     06/0000Z 32.0N  56.5W    65 KT
 96HR VT     07/0000Z 34.0N  57.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     08/0000Z 36.0N  56.5W    65 KT
 
 
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