ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005 A SHARP AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS SHEARED THE DEPRESSION TO THE POINT THAT AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL SWIRL HAS CLEARLY EMERGED FROM WHAT IS LEFT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO ITS NORTHEAST. THIS LOW LEVEL CENTER HAD BEEN DRIFTING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS OR SO... BUT RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST IT HAS BEGUN MOVING WESTWARD AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/6. THERE IS ESSENTIALLY NO CONVECTION NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER... AND THE ONLY NEARBY CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ABOUT 100 N MI DOWNSHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TO 25 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS. IF CONVECTION DOES NOT RESUME CLOSER TO THE CENTER DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... THE DEPRESSION COULD LOSE ITS STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER... AS IRENE DID... THIS CYCLONE COULD PROVE TENACIOUS ENOUGH TO SURVIVE THE UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS WHICH COULD SUBSIDE IN ABOUT 24-36 HOURS. SINCE THE DEPRESSION HAS BEGUN MOVING AGAIN... IT SEEMS LIKELY IT WILL RESUME A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHILE ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD INDUCE A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.... AS AGREED UPON BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. EVEN IF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT STRENGTHEN MUCH DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS... AS INDICATED IN THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST... EVEN THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW IS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. IF THE SYSTEM SURVIVES... UPPER LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD... AND IT COULD STILL EVENTUALLY REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0900Z 13.6N 46.4W 25 KT 12HR VT 14/1800Z 14.3N 47.2W 25 KT 24HR VT 15/0600Z 15.4N 48.4W 25 KT 36HR VT 15/1800Z 16.5N 49.7W 25 KT 48HR VT 16/0600Z 17.5N 51.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 17/0600Z 20.0N 54.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 18/0600Z 22.0N 57.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 19/0600Z 24.5N 60.5W 40 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 14-Aug-2005 09:25:05 UTC