ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005 LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS TAKEN ON THE APPEARN CE OF A SHEARED SYSTEM...WHILE WIND REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOY 41041 AND A 13/2349Z SSMI OVERPASS SUGGEST THAT BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER MAY BE LOCATED NEAR 14N46W...OR ABOUT 90 NMI SOUTHWEST OF THE ADVISORY POSITION. HOWEVER...THE SSMI DATA MAY BE DEPICTING ONE OF SEVERAL SMALL CIRCULATIONS THAT MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE REMNANTS OF THE ITCZ...SO THE OFFICIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON CONTUNITY WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY MOTION AND KEPT NEAR THE SIDE OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM SAB...BUT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING KEPT AT 30 KT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 315/08. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 36 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER THAT. A STAIR-STEP MAY OCCUR IN THE TRACK BETWEEN 48 AND 96 HOURS AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY FILLS AND MOVES WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...BUT THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE TOWARD A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY 120 HOURS. THE DEPRESSION IS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE IRENE-JUNIOR AS IT UNDERGOES SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR BENEATH THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. THROW IN SOME DRY MID-LEVEL AIR AND YOU HAVE THE MAKINGS FOR A DIFFICULT INTENSITY FORECAST. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER 48 HOURS BY THE SHIPS MODEL ...SO THE INTENSITY IT GRADUALLY INCREASED AFTER THAT. HOWEVER... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS BELOW THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS ...THE LATTER OF WHICH MAKES THE CYCLONE A 70-KT HURRICANE BY 120H. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0300Z 15.0N 45.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 14/1200Z 15.8N 46.3W 30 KT 24HR VT 15/0000Z 16.9N 47.3W 35 KT 36HR VT 15/1200Z 17.5N 48.6W 35 KT 48HR VT 16/0000Z 18.6N 50.3W 40 KT 72HR VT 17/0000Z 20.3N 53.8W 45 KT 96HR VT 18/0000Z 23.2N 57.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 19/0000Z 25.0N 61.5W 55 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 14-Aug-2005 03:10:06 UTC