ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL CCB TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 48...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005 ...CORRECTED TO REPLACE WORD EXTRACURRICULAR WITH EXTRATROPICAL... IRENE IS MAINTAINING INTENSITY AT THIS TIME...AS AN EYE HAS BEEN EVIDENT ON BOTH VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGES. SSM/I IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN EYE...THAT IS CIRCULAR AND 20 N MI IN DIAMETER WITH A CLOSED WALL...ALBEIT A LITTLE WEAK OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS GIVE A T-NUMBER OF 4.5 WHICH SUPPORTS A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 75 KT. EVEN THOUGH THE HURRICANE LOOKS QUITE HEALTHY AT THE MOMENT...ONLY A SMALL NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION WILL BRING THE SYSTEM INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF MUCH HIGHER SHEAR... GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST... LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWS A WEAKENING TREND COMMENCING WITHIN 12-24 HOURS AND THEN WEAKENS IRENE AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER RATE THAN PREDICTED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT IRENE WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH OR BECOME ABSORBED BY ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR SOUTHERN GREENLAND. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 080/9. THE HURRICANE HAS MOVED ON A MORE EASTERLY TRACK THAN ANTICIPATED...IN PART DUE TO A LACK OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO ITS SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN A MORE ZONAL STEERING CURRENT THAN EXPECTED. HOWEVER AS A 500 MB TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE LEFT...AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...IS ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFS...WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD INITIALIZATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/1500Z 36.7N 62.4W 75 KT 12HR VT 17/0000Z 37.2N 60.9W 70 KT 24HR VT 17/1200Z 38.3N 58.8W 65 KT 36HR VT 18/0000Z 41.0N 54.5W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 18/1200Z 46.0N 48.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 19/1200Z 55.0N 36.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 20/1200Z...ABSORBED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 16-Aug-2005 16:40:05 UTC