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Tropical Storm HARVEY


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TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN AUG 07 2005

WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF HARVEY IS UNDERNEATH THE CIRRUS
OVERCAST...A RECENT AQUA SATELLITE OVERPASS SHOWS THE STORM IS
STILL SHEARED WITH THE CONVECTION IN A CLUSTER NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB...45 KT
FROM SAB...AND 35 KT FROM AFWA.  SINCE THESE ARE UNCHANGED FROM
EARLIER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 040/10.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING HARVEY...
WHICH SHOULD MOVE THE STORM NORTHEASTWARD INITIALLY AND
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD LATER.  THAT BEING SAID...LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE
SLOWER TO MOVE HARVEY NORTHEASTWARD THAN THEY WERE EARLIER...AND
SEVERAL OF THEM SUGGEST THE CYCLONE MAY BECOME A CUT-OFF
EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY DAY 5.  IN LIGHT OF THIS...THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  IT IS
STILL FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH THAN THE LARGE-SCALE OR CONSENSUS
MODELS.

INCREASING SHEAR AND COLD AIR ENTRAINMENT CAUSED BY THE TROUGH
SHOULD BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 24-36 HR.  HARVEY IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW THROUGH 120 HR...AND
THERE IS A POSSIBLY THAT IT RE-INTENSIFY AFTER 72 HR.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CHANGED FROM A WEAKENING TREND TO STEADY
INTENSITY DURING THIS TIME TO REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/0900Z 35.4N  54.6W    50 KT
 12HR VT     07/1800Z 36.4N  53.5W    50 KT
 24HR VT     08/0600Z 37.7N  52.1W    45 KT
 36HR VT     08/1800Z 38.9N  50.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     09/0600Z 39.9N  48.2W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     10/0600Z 41.0N  43.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     11/0600Z 42.0N  38.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     12/0600Z 43.0N  33.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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