ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005 DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE...CURRENTLY IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS MISSION IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH WIND GUSTS OF TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A WELL DEFINED INNER CORE YET. INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS AND WITH LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATERS ALONG THE PATH OF THE CYCLONE...IT IS FORECAST THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO AS A TROPICAL STORM. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 KNOTS... SOUTH OF A PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE. THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. BY THEN...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE DISSIPATING INLAND OVER MEXICO. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 19.7N 94.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 24/1200Z 20.2N 95.4W 35 KT 24HR VT 25/0000Z 21.0N 97.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 25/1200Z 22.0N 98.5W 25 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 26/0000Z 23.0N 100.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 24-Jul-2005 02:55:04 UTC