ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND DROPSONDE DATA FROM A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE LARGE DISTURBANCE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN. DURING THE PAST HALF-HOUR...NOAA BUOY 42055 REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 23 KT ABOUT 150 NMI NORTH OF THE CENTER...WHILE A DROPSONDE INSTRUMENT JUST NORTH OF MERIDA REPORTED A SURFACE WIND NEAR 30 KT. WHILE THIS LATTER REPORT WAS WITHIN THE OUTFLOW OF A CLUSTER OF LAND-BASED THUNDERSTORMS...OTHER NEARBY DROPSONDE REPORTS INDICATE WINDS OF 30-35 KT AT 925-850 MB. THIS WIND DATA SUPPORTS AT LEAST 25 KT AS AN INITIAL INTENSITY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 285/05. THE INNER-CORE WIND FIELD AND CIRCULATION ARE RATHER BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED...SO PINPOINTING AN EXACT CENTER IS DIFFICULT AT BEST. HOWEVER...12Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THE LARGE-SCALE DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE IS SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING EAST-WEST FROM CALIFORNIA TO THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEPRESSION MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST OR WESTWARD MOTION...IGNORING THE WIGGLES AND WOBBLES THAT MAY OCCUR AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS NEAR THE CENTER...UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO NHC MODEL CONSENSUS UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW...AND SSTS ARE QUITE WARM...AROUND 29-30C. THIS WOULD NORMALLY FAVOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE DEPRESSION WILL ONLY HAVE ABOUT 36 HOURS OVER WATER BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND. THEREFORE...ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. HOWEVER...IF THE INITIAL INTENSITY TURNS OUT TO BE TOO LOW AND/OR THE CYCLONE MOVES A LITTLE SLOWER THAN FORECAST...THEN A STRONGER TROPICAL STORM COULD MAKE LANDFALL. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 19.4N 93.2W 25 KT 12HR VT 24/0600Z 19.9N 94.7W 30 KT 24HR VT 24/1800Z 20.4N 96.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 25/0600Z 21.1N 97.3W 45 KT 48HR VT 25/1800Z 21.9N 98.8W 30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 72HR VT 26/1800Z 22.5N 101.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND 96HR VT 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 23-Jul-2005 21:10:03 UTC