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Hurricane EMILY

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TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2005
 
DATA FROM THE BROWNSVILLE WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VELOCITIES
THAT SUPPORTED 70 KT AT THE 18Z SYNOPTIC TIME. SINCE THEN...HOWEVER
...THEY HAVE DECREASED TO 65-67 KT AT 9000 FT ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN MEXICAN COAST...WHICH ONLY SUPPORTS ABOUT 60 KT AT THE
SURFACE. THEREFORE...TENACIOUS EMILY HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A
TROPICAL STORM.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS FINALLY...WESTWARD...AT 275/10. NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT ON A WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
...AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY. THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY GET SHEARED AWAY FROM THE MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS AFTER 18 HOURS AND POSSIBLY REMAIN BEHIND
TO THE EAST OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGE. HOWEVER...A 24-HOUR POSITION WAS
INCLUDED FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES FOR THOSE USERS WHO MAY NEED AN
18-HOUR INTERMEDIATE POSITION.
 
EMILY SHOULD CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES OVER INCREASINGLY HIGHER TERRAIN...AND COULD BECOME A
DEPRESSION LATER THIS EVENING. COMPLETE DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR BY
24-30 HOURS WHEN EMILY IS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN MEXICO.
 
FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/2100Z 25.0N  99.2W    60 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     21/0600Z 25.1N 100.9W    30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 24HR VT     21/1800Z 25.1N 103.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
 36HR VT     22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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