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Hurricane EMILY


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HURRICANE EMILY SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2005

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND
FORECAST INTENSITY OF EMILY.  MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB
FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WERE 122 KT AT 2126Z...
SUPPORTING THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KT.  THE WINDS HAVE NOW
CAUGHT UP TO THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE THAT WAS ALREADY TYPICAL
OF AT LEAST A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE.  ADDITIONALLY... THE WIND
RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHEAST BASED ON THE
LATEST AIRCRAFT DATA.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO REFLECT RECENT TRENDS... AND EMILY COULD REACH
CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY BEFORE LANDFALL.  THE TRACK FORECAST HAS
NOT BEEN CHANGED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.

 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/2300Z 24.5N  96.0W   110 KT
 12HR VT     20/0600Z 24.6N  97.2W   120 KT
 24HR VT     20/1800Z 24.7N  99.3W    40 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 36HR VT     21/0600Z 24.7N 101.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
 48HR VT     21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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