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Hurricane EMILY


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HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2005

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN TRYING TO WRAP AROUND EMILY'S LARGE RAGGED
EYE...AND...ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS...THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED.  EVEN THOUGH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS NOT YET
FALLEN...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS OF 90 KT IN THE NORTHEAST EYE WALL.  THIS CORRESPONDS TO A
SURFACE WIND OF 80 KT...WHICH IS THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE. 
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BECOME RATHER SYMMETRIC AS EMILY SHEDS THE
INFLUENCE OF A WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS SOUTHWEST.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...SIMILAR TO THE
LATEST GFDL MODEL RUN.  EMILY COULD BE APPROACHING MAJOR HURRICANE
STATUS PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  AFTER LANDFALL...THE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN
RAPIDLY OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO.

INITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED A LITTLE AND IS ABOUT 300/13.  ALL
AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE WILL PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF EMILY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD MAINTAIN THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION UNTIL LANDFALL.  THE 18Z GFS TRACK HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO
THE NORTH BUT THE OTHER GUIDANCE IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED...AND IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE...ONLY SLIGHTLY SLOWER.  THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE
TRACK.

NO CHANGES TO THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/0300Z 22.9N  92.1W    80 KT
 12HR VT     19/1200Z 23.6N  93.9W    85 KT
 24HR VT     20/0000Z 24.2N  96.2W    95 KT
 36HR VT     20/1200Z 24.5N  98.5W    70 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     21/0000Z 24.5N 101.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     22/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
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