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Hurricane EMILY (Text)

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HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005

AIR FORCE RECON REPORTED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 134 KT
IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AT 0018Z.  NORMALLY THIS WOULD CORRESPOND
TO A SURFACE WIND ESTIMATE OF ABOUT 120 KT.  HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS BEEN RISING STEADILY AND IS NOW UP TO 955 MB. 
THEREFORE IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE INTENSITY IS JUST A LITTLE LOWER
AT THIS TIME...115 KT.  THIS IS STILL CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH...AND
EMILY REMAINS A FORMIDABLE HURRICANE.  RADAR IMAGERY FROM CANCUN
SHOWS THE EYEWALL STRUCTURE  FLUCTUATING...BUT WITH NO DEFINITIVE
INDICATIONS OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT.  NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
INTENSITY IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL IN A FEW HOURS.  A WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MAY HAVE BEEN IMPARTING
SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER EMILY.  GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND WEAKEN WITHIN 12-24
HOURS....CREATING AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT THAT APPEARS TO
BE CONDUCIVE TO STRENGTHENING.  THEREFORE...ONCE THE CENTER MOVES
BACK OVER THE WATERS OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
RE-INTENSIFICATION IS PREDICTED.  JUST HOW MUCH EMILY RESTRENGTHENS
IS PARTLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT THAT THE INNER CORE IS DISRUPTED
AFTER PASSING OVER NORTHERN YUCATAN.  

INITIAL MOTION...295/16...IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE.  THE TRACK
FORECAST REASONING IS ALSO BASICALLY UNCHANGED.  THE GFS MODEL
INDICATES THAT A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY CAUSE A SLIGHT
EROSION IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS...BUT THE RIDGE IS LIKELY TO RESTRENGTHEN
THEREAFTER.  THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS HAS
SHIFTED EVER SO SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH FOR THIS PACKAGE...WITH THE
GFS SHOWING THE SOUTHERNMOST TRACK.  INTERESTINGLY...THAT MODEL HAS
HAD THE LOWEST 72 HR TRACK ERROR OF ALL THE GUIDANCE FOR
EMILY...THUS FAR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NOW A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS.

A HURRICANE WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST...INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
COAST...EARLY ON MONDAY.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/0300Z 19.9N  86.5W   115 KT
 12HR VT     18/1200Z 21.0N  88.9W    90 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     19/0000Z 22.3N  91.7W    95 KT
 36HR VT     19/1200Z 23.3N  94.4W   100 KT
 48HR VT     20/0000Z 24.1N  96.8W   105 KT
 72HR VT     21/0000Z 25.0N 102.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     22/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
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