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Hurricane EMILY


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TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005
 
EMILY HAS REMAINED ESSENTIALLY STEADY-STATE DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS AS A HIGH-END CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.  HOWEVER... AN
AIRCRAFT RECON FIX AT 2340Z DID INDICATE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD
FALLEN 8 MB SINCE 18Z TO 929 MB... AND A MORE RECENT FIX MEASURED
931 MB.  THE MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND IN THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT WAS 149 KT... WHICH SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT
135 KT.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS WERE 6.5 FROM SAB AND AFWA AND 7.0 FROM
TAFB... SO THERE IS NOT MUCH BASIS ON WHICH TO UPGRADE TO A
CATEGORY FIVE AT THIS TIME.  SINCE BOTH THE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENTS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN APPEAR TO POSE NOTHING
OBVIOUS TO WEAKEN EMILY... INTERNAL STRUCTURAL CHANGES WILL LIKELY
DETERMINE INTENSITY CHANGES BEFORE EMILY PASSED OVER OR NEAR THE
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  THE INTENSITY OVER THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH TIME EMILY SPENDS
OVER YUCATAN... BUT IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT IT WILL MAINTAIN MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK... NOW ESTIMATED AT 295/16.  THIS EXTRAPOLATED MOTION IS USED
TO CONSTRUCT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK OUT TO ABOUT 36 HOURS...
AND THE CURRENT FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.... SINCE SOME OF THE MODELS... ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN OUTLIERS... DO NOT INITIALIZE THE POSITION OR SHORT-TERM
MOTION VERY WELL.  IF ANYTHING... THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUNS... SO I SEE NO REASON TO SHIFT
THE FORECAST TRACK OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  IT IS STILL TO SOON...
HOWEVER... TO DETERMINE IF LANDFALL ON THE NORTH AMERICAN MAINLAND
WILL OCCUR IN NORTHERN MEXICO OR IN TEXAS.

 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/0300Z 17.5N  80.3W   135 KT
 12HR VT     17/1200Z 18.5N  82.6W   135 KT
 24HR VT     18/0000Z 19.8N  85.8W   135 KT
 36HR VT     18/1200Z 21.0N  89.0W    95 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     19/0000Z 22.2N  92.0W   105 KT
 72HR VT     20/0000Z 24.0N  97.0W   105 KT
 96HR VT     21/0000Z 25.0N 101.5W    55 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     22/0000Z 25.0N 105.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 
 
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