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Hurricane EMILY


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005
 
AIR FORCE RECON DATA NEAR 06Z INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD
FALLEN TO 953 MB...AND A 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 131 KT...OR
118 KT EQUIVALENT SURFACE WINDS...WAS OBSERVED IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT DURING THE OUTBOUND LEG. GIVEN THAT THE 15 NMI DIAMETER
EYE HAS CLEARED OUT NICELY SINCE THE RECON FLIGHT...AND THAT ODT
VALUES OVER THE PAST 1.5H HAVE BEEN T6.5/127 KT...THE INTENSITY FOR
THE ADVISORY IS BEING CONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 120 KT. THE
IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN ALSO CONTINUES TO IMPROVE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/16. EMILY HAS BEEN ON A 285 DEGREE
HEADING FOR THE PAST 48 HOURS...AND I SEE NO INDICATIONS THAT THAT
MOTION SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE ANY TIME SOON. UPPER-AIR DATA AT
00Z INDICATES 24-HOUR 700-400 MB HEIGHTS ACROSS FLORIDA HAVE
INCREASED BY ABOUT 20 METERS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT...AT LEAST IN
THE SHORT TERM...EMILY SHOULD CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT MOTION AND
PASS MORE THAN 60 NMI SOUTH OF JAMAICA LATER TODAY. BEYOND THAT...
THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON EMILY MAKING LANDFALL
ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. BY 72
HOURS...A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING
THE U.S. PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO DIG EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AND WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MAY ALLOW EMILY TO BRIEFLY MOVE MORE
NORTHWESTWARD...BEFORE TURNING BACK TOWARD THE WEST AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE AREA AND ALLOWS THE
RIDGE TO BUILD STRONGLY WESTWARD. LOCATION OF A SECOND LANDFALL IS
DIFFCULT TO PREDICT AT 96 HOURS...BUT THE MOST LIKELY AREA APPEARS
TO BE FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS TO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.

THE EYE IS EMBEDDED IN THE CENTER OF A NICE ROUND CDO...AND WITH
WARMER WATER AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE AND VERY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW...THE
ONLY INHIBITING INTENSITY FACTORS SHOULD BE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLES AND LAND INTERACTION. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO LOSE ABOUT 30 KT
AS IT PASSES OVER THE YUCATAN...BUT IT COULD REGAIN CATEGORY 3
STRENGTH DUE TO 29-30C SSTS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND A VERY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN.
  
FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0900Z 15.6N  75.8W   120 KT
 12HR VT     16/1800Z 16.3N  78.3W   125 KT
 24HR VT     17/0600Z 17.5N  81.5W   120 KT
 36HR VT     17/1800Z 18.9N  84.7W   120 KT
 48HR VT     18/0600Z 20.3N  87.6W   115 KT...INLAND OVER YUCATAN
 72HR VT     19/0600Z 23.1N  92.9W    90 KT...OVER SOUTHWEST GULFMEX
 96HR VT     20/0600Z 25.0N  97.5W   100 KT
120HR VT     21/0600Z 26.0N 102.5W    35 KT...INLAND OVER NRN MEXICO

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