Hurricane EMILY

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HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2005
 
AN AIR FORCE PLANE CURRENTLY OBSERVING THE STRUCTURE OF EMILY HAS
REPORTED CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS OF 8 AND 25 N MI RESPECTIVELY. THIS
SUGGESTS THAT EMILY MAY BE GOING THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. BECAUSE
THE LAST TIME THE RECON MEASURED WINDS TO SUPPORT CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE WAS EARLY THIS MORNING...THERE IS NO EYE OBSERVED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 110 KT IN THIS ADVISORY. THE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AS IT
WAS FOR DENNIS LAST WEEK.  WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A LARGE
UPPER-LOW OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY
INCREASE THE SHEAR OVER EMILY. IN FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL IS SHOWING
INCREASING SHEAR OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.  FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS...ALL GLOBAL MODELS WERE WEAKENING THE UPPER-LOW AND THEY
STILL DO...BUT THIS FEATURE HAS BECOME LARGER INSTEAD. THEREFORE...
SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST BUT ASSUMING THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS WILL
LIKELY BE PARTIALLY CORRECT IN FORECASTING A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT...EMILY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AS MAJOR HURRICANE
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ONCE EMILY CROSSES YUCATAN AND
WEAKENS...NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RE-INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS
SCENARIO.
 
EMILY HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES
AT 17 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY A STRONG DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WHICH IS THE STRONGEST FROM THE BAHAMAS WESTWARD ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WOULD KEEP EMILY ON THIS GENERAL TRACK
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE TRACK ENVELOPE SINCE ALL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN A NORTHWARD
BIAS SO FAR.

THE STRUCTURE OF EMILY HAS BEEN ABLE TO BE OBSERVED BY THE
NETHERLANDS ANTILLES RADAR LOCATED AT CURACAO.
-
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/1500Z 14.4N  70.9W   110 KT
 12HR VT     16/0000Z 15.0N  73.5W   105 KT
 24HR VT     16/1200Z 16.5N  77.0W   105 KT
 36HR VT     17/0000Z 18.0N  80.0W   105 KT
 48HR VT     17/1200Z 19.5N  83.0W   105 KT
 72HR VT     18/1200Z 22.0N  89.0W    90 KT
 96HR VT     19/1200Z 25.0N  94.0W    90 KT
120HR VT     20/1200Z 26.0N  98.5W    60 KT
 
 
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