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Hurricane EMILY


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HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2005

EMILY HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED INTO A HURRICANE THIS EVENING.  THE
FIRST AIRCRAFT FIX AT 2331Z INDICATED THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WAS
BENEATH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND MEASURED A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1000 MB.  00Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGED
FROM 50 TO 65 KT...WITH THE STRONGER ESTIMATES BASED ON A LOW LEVEL
CENTER IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  LATER RECON FIXES
SHOWED THAT THE CENTER HAD REFORMED TO THE NORTHEAST WITHIN THE
CONVECTION...AND THE WIND AND PRESSURE DATA SOON RESPONDED.  THE
PRESSURE HAS MOST RECENTLY FALLEN TO 992 MB...AND THE MAXIMUM 850
MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND HAS BEEN 79 KT...SUPPORTING AT LEAST 63 KT AT
THE SURFACE.  HOWEVER...REDUCTION TO THE SURFACE OF A DROPSONDE
PROFILE JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER AT 01Z SUPPORTS SURFACE WINDS OF
80 KT...WHICH IS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...MAKING EMILY A MAJOR
HURRICANE BY 48 HOURS.  THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.

DUE TO THE SCATTER IN THE RECON FIXES DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN BUT IS ESTIMATED AT 275/16. 
EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NEW
POSITION...THE TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.  THE NWS MODELS...GFS AND GFDL...HAVE CHANGED LITTLE
SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUNS...WHILE THE NAVY MODELS...GFDN AND
NOGAPS...HAVE SHIFTED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TAKES EMILY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DYNAMICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE.

 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/0300Z 11.9N  61.1W    80 KT
 12HR VT     14/1200Z 12.5N  63.5W    85 KT
 24HR VT     15/0000Z 13.4N  66.7W    90 KT
 36HR VT     15/1200Z 14.5N  70.0W    95 KT
 48HR VT     16/0000Z 15.5N  73.2W   100 KT
 72HR VT     17/0000Z 17.5N  79.0W   100 KT
 96HR VT     18/0000Z 19.5N  85.0W   100 KT
120HR VT     19/0000Z 21.0N  90.5W    90 KT
 
 
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