Tropical Storm EMILY

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TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE JUL 12 2005

THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE
STORM AS PERCEIVED FROM SATELLITE IMAGES.  DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM AFWA...TAFB...AND SAB RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KT...BUT
THE CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES ARE NOT VERY PROMINENT AT THIS
TIME.  EMILY'S INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.  THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYLONE OVER THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THIS SCENARIO
WOULD APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL WIND
SPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...
ALTHOUGH SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODEL SUGGEST THAT EMILY COULD
STRENGTHEN AT A SOMEWHAT FASTER RATE THAN SHOWN HERE.

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN CENTER POSITION ESTIMATES...BUT MY
BEST GUESS IS THAT THE STORM IS NOW MOVING AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER
FORWARD SPEED...280 AT 13 KT.  FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EMILY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE FOR THIS PACKAGE HAS
SHIFTED SOUTHWARD SOMEWHAT.  THIS SHIFT IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
GLOBAL MODEL'S PREDICTION OF THE FORMATION OF A RATHER STRONG
MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD
IN THIS ADVISORY...HOWEVER IT IS NORTH OF THE LATEST CONSENSUS
MODEL TRACK.

IT IS NOTABLE THAT...WITH EMILY'S FORMATION...THIS IS THE EARLIEST
DATE ON RECORD FOR THE FORMATION OF FIVE NAMED CYCLONES.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0900Z 11.4N  48.6W    40 KT
 12HR VT     12/1800Z 12.0N  50.5W    45 KT
 24HR VT     13/0600Z 12.9N  53.5W    55 KT
 36HR VT     13/1800Z 13.6N  56.4W    65 KT
 48HR VT     14/0600Z 14.4N  59.6W    75 KT
 72HR VT     15/0600Z 16.5N  66.0W    80 KT
 96HR VT     16/0600Z 18.5N  71.5W    85 KT
120HR VT     17/0600Z 20.0N  77.0W    85 KT...INLAND
 
 
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