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Tropical Depression FIVE


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2005
 
GOOD LUCK FINDING A CENTER IN THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE
THERE IS CLEARLY A BROAD-SCALE CIRCULATION...THE DEPRESSION REMAINS
VERY POORLY ORGANIZED.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE A FOCUS OF LOW-LEVEL
TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST OF MY ESTIMATED POSITION...AS EVIDENCED BY
A MICROWAVE PASS AT 1737Z...BUT FOR THIS PACKAGE I WILL TRY TO LOOK
AT THE BIG PICTURE AND FOLLOW THE GEOMETRIC CENTER OF THE OVERALL
DISTURBANCE.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB...AND
35 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA.  GIVEN THE CYCLONE'S DISHEVELED
APPEARANCE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT. 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/12.  THE DEPRESSION IS
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...AND GLOBAL
MODELS AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SURPRISINGLY WELL CLUSTERED...WITH THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE BEING THE FORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND VERY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE DEPRESSION REMAINS SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR AND IS SOUTH OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER...OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE
CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AND SLOW STEADY STRENGHENING IS ANTICIPATED...ROUGHLY
IN ACCORD WITH THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO MAKE
THE CYCLONE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE CARIBBEAN.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/2100Z 10.6N  46.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     12/0600Z 10.9N  47.7W    35 KT
 24HR VT     12/1800Z 11.6N  50.3W    40 KT
 36HR VT     13/0600Z 12.4N  53.2W    50 KT
 48HR VT     13/1800Z 13.2N  56.5W    55 KT
 72HR VT     14/1800Z 15.0N  63.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     15/1800Z 17.0N  68.5W    75 KT
120HR VT     16/1800Z 19.5N  74.0W    70 KT
 
 
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